This document outlays FUNDAUS (the Company) approved methodology for credit risk assessment and fair offer price determination and possible change in the offer as a result of re-assessment or payment delays.
- official (factual) data on the project and the project owner and to the extend applicable – on its associated companies, submitted by the project owner and/or retrieved from official registers and databases;
- calculations and forecasts, made by the project owner and verified by the Company itself or in cooperation with invited experts, based on the experience thereof, good practice, reliable macroeconomic and market data, estimations and forecasts.
Risk | Description |
---|---|
1. Schedule risk | Likelihood of failing to meet project implementation schedule and the consequent effect of that failure. Encompasses imprecise forecast of length of time necessary to complete an activity, meet a milestone, or deliver a product. |
2. Risk of non- achievement of results | Likelihood of non-achievement of projected production capacity, sales, or financials at a certain period of time. |
3. Technology risk | Likelihood of technical and/or technological errors pertaining to production technology, facilities and equipment that may result in significant interruptions and idle time of production process that, in turn, may arise unforeseen growth of contingency budget and/or enhance the risk of non-achievement of results. |
4. Risk of project management | Risk that poor project management performance and/or lack of competence, experience, skills or qualifications may have a negative impact on performance of the project owner that may lead to unsatisfactory financials and/or significant divergence from the expected results at a certain time. |
5. Labour force risk | Likelihood of lack of capability to retain at time sufficient labour resources with appropriate education, skills and experience to ensure timely and efficient implementation of the project. |
6. Shortage of working capital | Likelihood of lack of money to ensure operating needs of the project owner that may impede the maintenance of acceptable liquidity, including procurements and provision of sufficient inventory, execution of orders and settlements with counterparties, fulfilment of current financial liabilities, provision of short-term investments according to the budget, etc. |
7. Risk of supplies | Likelihood of not finding of appropriate suppliers to provide the procurements of major raw materials in time and of demanded technical specification and quality; or the failure of the existing (acknowledged) suppliers to do so and failure to promptly find and retain substitute suppliers without harm to the continuity of production process and ready product output. |
8. Cost risk | Likelihood of cost overruns pertaining to the cost of all and any resource (e.g., due to market price growth or unexpected increase of consumption due to any reason) resulting to unforeseen growth of self-cost of ready product that cannot be compensated with the according increase of sale price. |
9. Risk of sales | Likelihood of not selling the forecasted amount of output within a certain time at a target price due to any reason, including intensive competition, insufficient market niche for the product, drop of purchasing power-backed consumer demand, negative changes in market conjuncture, etc. |
10. Sale price risk | Risk that the sale prices will temporarily or permanently go down while costs do not decrease enough to maintain the forecasted profit margin. |
11. Settlement risk | Risk that the counterparties' failure to fulfil their payment obligations at time; growth of bad debtors in the proportion that may affect the liquidity of the company and its abilities to perform obligations |
12. Financial risk | Likelihood of the project owner's failure to fulfil its obligations due to an overwhelmed burden of its financial liabilities, including those that exist and that may arise, as a result of a too high proportion of loan capital in company's financing sources, its underperformance or negative changes in financial capital markets or other reasons that result to the increase of interest payments and worsening of terms and conditions for using loan capital. |
13. Market risk | Likelihood of negative market fluctuations and the exposure of the business to them as a result of which the achievement of the planned results may be threatened or debatable. |
Score | Risk likelihood | Explanation |
---|---|---|
0 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is practically zero. | The risk is not expected to occur under any circumstances. |
1 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is minimal/very low. | The risk is highly unlikely to occur, and there are minimal chances of it happening. |
2 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is low. | While not highly probable, there is a slight chance of the risk happening. |
3 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is medium. | The risk has a reasonable chance of occurring, and there is a noticeable possibility of its realization. |
4 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is moderate. | The risk is more likely than not to happen, and there is a significant probability associated with its occurrence. |
5 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is significant. | The risk is probable and expected to occur with a considerable chance of its realization. |
6 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is high. | The risk is highly probable, and there is a substantial likelihood of its realization. |
7 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is very high. | The risk is almost certain to occur, with an overwhelming probability associated with its occurrence. |
8 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is critically high. | The risk is virtually assured to happen, with an extremely high probability of its realization. |
9 | The probability of occurrence of the risk is almost inevitable. | The risk is virtually guaranteed to occur, with an almost absolute probability of its realization. |
10 | Tre occurrence of the risk is virtually guaranteed. | The risk will definitely occur, with an absolute certainty of its realization. |
Score | Risk likelihood | Explanation |
---|---|---|
0 | No consequence | The risk has no discernible consequence or impact on the business. It does not pose any threat to the achievement of the business's objectives. |
1 | The consequence of the risk is negligible. | The risk has minimal or insignificant impact on the business's objectives or operations. |
2 | The consequence of the risk is minor. | The risk may cause slight disruptions or challenges but does not significantly hinder the business's objectives. |
3 | The consequence of the risk is moderate. | The risk leads to notable disruptions or challenges to the business's objectives but still manageable within existing resources and capabilities. |
4 | The consequence of the risk is medium. | The risk may require additional resources or adjustments to mitigate its impact and ensure the achievement of business objectives. |
5 | The consequence of the risk is significant. | The consequence of the risk poses substantial challenges to the business's objectives. It may require substantial resources and efforts to address and mitigate its impact. |
6 | The consequence of the risk is high. | The risk has a high consequence that significantly impacts the business's objectives and operations. It may require significant interventions and mitigation strategies to minimize its impact. |
7 | The consequence of the risk is very high. | The consequence of the risk results in severe disruptions to the business's objectives and operations. It necessitates urgent and comprehensive actions to mitigate its impact. |
8 | The consequence of the risk is critical | The risk has a consequence that critically affects the business's objectives and operations. It demands immediate attention and extraordinary measures to mitigate its impact and prevent severe damage. |
9 | The consequence of the risk is catastrophic. | The consequence of the risk causes extensive damage and potentially jeopardizing the survival of the business. It requires immediate and drastic measures to mitigate its impact. |
10 | The consequence of the risk is devastating. | The consequence of the risk leads to irreparable damage and complete failure of the business. It represents an existential threat and requires extraordinary measures to prevent its occurrence. |
Financial ratios | Credit score criteria | Relative share | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | ||
Previous practical experience in the field, years | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 5,0% |
Start-up component of the Project | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8,0% |
Stability of CF | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12,0% |
Free CF margin | 0,0% | 2,5% | 5,0% | 7,5% | 10,0% | 12,5% | 15,0% | 17,5% | 20,0% | 22,5% | 25,0% | 10,0% |
Availability of additional net revenues | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 5,0% |
DSCR, average | 0 | 1,5 | 1,05 | 1,10 | 1,15 | 1,20 | 1,25 | 1,30 | 1,35 | 1,40 | 1,45 | 10,0% |
Percentage of equity in total investments | 0,0% | 5,0% | 10,0% | 15,0% | 20,0% | 25,0% | 30,0% | 35,0% | 40,0% | 45,0% | 50,0% | 5,0% |
LTV | 100% | 97,5% | 95% | 90% | 85% | 80% | 75% | 70% | 65% | 50% | 55% | 10,0% |
Other financial liabilities, % of Platform loan | 50% | 45% | 40% | 35% | 30% | 25% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 5,0% |
Presence and significance of other encumbrances | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2,0% |
Liquidity of collateral | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 12,0% |
Overall project risk percentage | 100% | 90% | 80% | 70% | 60% | 50% | 40% | 30% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 11,0% |
Branch risk | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5,0% |
Offer price is determined, based on the following parameters:
(1) Risk-free interest rate;
(2) Offer class category;
(3) Quality of collateral;
(4) Loan characteristic;
(5) Other risks associated with the Loan.
To determine the risk-free interest rate, thespot rate of AAA rated bonds as published by the European Central Bank is used. It serves as a basis for determination of fair offer price with the rest of components, reflecting the characteristic of the loan and risks pertaining to the Project to be added.
Credit score | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
≥ 90% | < 90% ≥ 80% | < 80% ≥ 70% | ||
Project risk | Negligible | AAA | AA+ | AA |
Minor | AA+ | AA | AA- | |
Fairly low | AA | AA- | A |
- AAA - highest quality of Offer;
- AA- to AA+ - very high quality of Offer;
- A+ - high quality of Offer.
Offer class category | Score to be assigned |
---|---|
AAA | 1 |
AA+ | 2 |
AA | 3 |
AA- | 4 |
A+ | 5 |
The higher is the offer class category, the lesser is the score figure, meaning that a lower amount will be added to the risk-free interest rate as one of the components as a component of total offer price.
3 | 2 | 1 | |
---|---|---|---|
Quality of collateral | Reduced quality (estimated losses ≥60%) | Conventional quality (estimated losses >30%≤59%) | High quality (estimated losses ≤ 30%) |
- Net Present Value (NPV) of the loan;
- Loan term in months;
- Loan repayment schedule;
- Loan amortization, if any.
- Whether operational and administrative costs and fees are assumed to be fully or partly covered by an additional loan administration fee charged from the project owner as a borrower.
NPV is calculated by discounting future Loan repayments for the respective years, applying projected inflation rate in accordance with official forecasts of the European Central Bank available.
3 | 2 | 1 | |
---|---|---|---|
Quality of collateral | Reduced | Conventional | High |
NPV of the loan | ≤500 000 | >500 000 ≤2 000 000 | >2 000 000 |
Term, months | ≤ 12 | > 12 ≤ 24 | > 24 |
Repayment schedule | At maturity | Quarterly | Monthly |
Amortization | Fully | Partly | None |
Type of risk | Score to add | Explanation |
---|---|---|
Risk of foreign jurisdiction | 0.5 | Location of collateral or project owner's main activity in a foreign jurisdiction may impose additional legal risks, e.g., pertaining to debt collection |
Time and/or resource-consuming enforced sale | 0.5 | Specific collateral (e.g., maritime vessel) may require additional time, efforts, and human resources for its enforced sale |
Exposure to European/international sanctions | 0.5 | Risk that new imposed or expanded sanctions will have a significant adverse impact on project owner's cash flow |
Political risk, except for sanctions risk | 0.5 | Risk that Project-related activity will be prohibited or restricted within the time frame of the loan (e.g., ecologic concerns, competition issues, etc.) |
Permits and licensing | 0.5 | Risk that the project owner loses or not obtains necessary permits or licenses for running the project |
Risk of premature loan repayment | 0.5 | Loan is repaid ahead of schedule |
Other risk (to be specified) | 0.5 | |
Total | Total score depending on the risks present to be counted |
(1) | Risk-free interest rate | Market data |
(2) | Offer class category | Scoring result |
(3.1) | Quality of collateral (weight 70%) | Scoring result |
(3.2) | Arithmetic average of Loan characteristic parameters (weight 30%) | Scoring result |
(4) | Operational and administrative costs and fees | Scoring result |
(5) | Other risks associated with the loan | Scoring result |
Calculated fair offer price | Total value |
Credit score | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
≥ 90% | < 90% ≥ 80% | < 80% ≥ 70% | < 70 ≥ 61 | < 60 ≥ 51 | < 50 | ||
Project risk | Negligible | AAA | AA+ | AA | AA- | AA | A+ |
Minor | AA+ | AA | AA- | AA | A+ | A | |
Fairly low | AA | AA- | A+ | A | A- | BBB+ | |
Below intermediate | AA- | A+ | A | A- | BBB+ | BBB | |
Near intermediate | A+ | A | A- | BBB+ | BBB | BBB- | |
Above intermediate | A | A- | BBB+ | BBB | BBB- | Default risk |
Offer class category | Score to be assigned |
---|---|
AAA | 1 |
AA+ | 2 |
AA | 3 |
AA- | 4 |
A+ | 5 |
A | 6 |
A- | 7 |
BBB+ | 8 |
BBB | 9 |
BBB- | 10 |
Initially or previously assigned Offer class category | New Offer class category to be assigned depending on days of payment delay | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
≤ 30 days | > 30 and ≤ 60 days | > 60 and ≤ 90 days | > 90 days | |
AAA | No changes | AA+ | AA | Default |
AA+ | No changes | AA | AA- | Default |
AA | No changes | AA- | A+ | Default |
AA- | No changes | A+ | A | Default |
A+ | No changes | A | A- | Default |
A | No changes | A- | BBB+ | Default |
A- | No changes | BBB+ | BBB | Default |
BBB+ | No changes | BBB | BBB- | Default |
BBB | No changes | BBB- | Risk of default | Default |
BBB- | No changes | Risk of default | Risk of default | Default |
Default risk | No changes | No changes | No changes | Default |
Loan administration and monitoring fees are charged by the Company from the project owner as a borrower according to the Price List to cover its respective expenses related to the monitoring of loan portfolio quality and taking timely actions, if required. These fees are not applicable to the investors.
In cases prescribed in Company`s internal procedures, the loan collateral may require to be revaluated. All fees and expenses pertaining to collateral revaluation, including ordering a new or updating a previously submitted collateral appraisal, are covered by the project owner as a borrower. Company`s staff efforts pertaining to fulfilling the respective procedures are included in loan administration and monitoring fee. These fees are not applicable to the investors.
Fees for changing the terms of the loan agreement are borne by the Company or charged from the project owner as a borrower if such fee is included in the loan agreement. For long-term projects (exceeding 12 months) this fee can be included in loan administration and monitoring costs.
These fees are not applicable to the investors and no costs or losses arise for the investors related to changes in terms of the loan agreement unless it assumes changes in the offer price (for this case provisions of Section 3 apply). In case of changes in the offer, investors are automatically notified within 3 (three) business days, following these changes.
Due to the considerations that the Company is not allowed to worsen the conditions of the investors, debt restructuring is not applied. Non-performing loans are subject to debt collection as prescribed in Company`s internal procedures.
In case of debt collection, fees to cover Company`s expenses are applied to the investors according to the Price List. When the debt is recovered, subject to the collected amount, the fees initially charged and paid may be compensated from the proceeds. All collected amounts are distributed between the investors to repay the debt, including maximum reimbursement of fees related to debt collection procedure.
No fees are applied to the project owner as a borrower in case of early loan repayment and no compensation is assumed to be paid to the investors for early loan repayment.
The Company has not established a contingency fund, thus fees regarding contingency funds are not applicable.